SpaceX's Starship Progress: Post - Flight 10 Analysis and Future Plans

1. Post - Flight 10 Updates

It has been two weeks since SpaceX's last Starship test flight. Engineers have been actively engaged in diagnosing issues related to the heat shield, identifying areas for improvement, and formulating a preliminary plan for the next space - bound journey of the Starship.

Bill Gerstenmaier, a SpaceX executive overseeing build and flight reliability, presented these findings on Monday at the American Astronautical Society’s Glenn Space Technology Symposium in Cleveland.

1.1 Flight 10 Overview

The rocket took off on August 26 from SpaceX’s launch pad in Starbase, Texas, located just north of the US - Mexico border. This marked the 10th full - scale test flight of SpaceX’s Super Heavy booster and Starship upper stage, which together form the world’s largest rocket.

1.2 Objectives and Results of Flight 10

• Objectives: The August 26 test flight had several key objectives. SpaceX aimed to overcome problems in Starship’s propulsion and propellant systems, which had troubled three previous test flights. Additionally, engineers were eager to gather data on Starship’s heat shield, an assembly of thousands of tiles that safeguard the ship’s underside during re - entry through the atmosphere.

• Results: “Things went extremely well,” Gerstenmaier stated. A little over an hour after liftoff, the Starship successfully guided itself to a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean northwest of Australia. It came within 10 feet (3 meters) of its targeted splashdown point, near an inflatable buoy positioned to record its final descent. However, the ship showed signs of damage. There was visible harm to its rear end and flaps, and most notably, a rusty - orange discoloration down the side of the 171 - foot - tall (52 - meter) vehicle.

2. Heat Shield Analysis

2.1 Metallic Tiles Experiment

SpaceX founder Elon Musk attributed the discoloration to the oxidation of metallic heat shield tiles. These were installed to test their durability and performance in comparison to the ship’s ceramic tiles. Gerstenmaier elaborated during his presentation on Monday: “We were essentially conducting a test to determine if non - ceramic tiles could suffice. So, we placed three metal tiles on the side of the ship to assess if they could provide adequate heat control, given their potential for simpler manufacturing and greater durability than ceramic tiles. It turns out they did not.”

He further noted, “The metal tiles... did not perform well. They oxidized significantly in the high - oxygen environment. The nice orange color, reminiscent of a [space] shuttle external tank color, perhaps a nod to the shuttle program, was caused by those three small metal tiles at the top.”

The metallic tile experiment is representative of SpaceX’s rapid - iteration approach to Starship development. Although metallic heat shield tiles are not a new technology (NASA tested them in labs in the 1970s but never flew them), SpaceX engineers quickly incorporate changes and new designs into each test flight.

2.2 Heat Leakage and Tile Sealing

Gerstenmaier pointed out a patch of white near the top of Starship’s heat shield. This was caused by heat seeping through tile gaps and eroding the underlying material, a thermal barrier derived from the heat shield on SpaceX’s Dragon spacecraft. Technicians also deliberately removed some tiles near the nose to test the vehicle’s response.

“It’s essentially a white material on Dragon that ablates away, creating a white residue. This indicates that heat is entering the space between the tiles and burning the material beneath. Thus, we learned that we need to seal the tiles,” Gerstenmaier explained.

Engineers also observed several more white blotches lower on the ship, where heat leakage occurred between tiles.

3. Solutions and Plans for Flight 11

3.1 “Crunch Wrap” Solution

SpaceX officials believe they have a solution. Near the top of the ship, among the white patch, engineers noticed some darker areas where a new experimental material, dubbed “crunch wrap,” was installed around and under the tiles.

“It’s like a wrapping paper that encircles each tile. These tiles are mechanically held in place, snapped in by a robot. When the tile is inserted, this wrapping paper surrounds the sides of each tile, and then we trim it at the surface,” Gerstenmaier described.

Using “crunch wrap” could seal the tile gaps without the need for gap fillers, which added complexity to the space shuttle’s heat shield and sometimes dislodged during flight.

3.2 Flight 11 Trajectory and Timeline

For Flight 11, Starship will follow a sub - orbital trajectory similar to previous missions. The next flight could take place in October, preparing SpaceX for the debut of an upgraded Starship/Super Heavy rocket next year. The Super Heavy booster for the next launch was test - fired on Sunday in Texas.

Gerstenmaier stated, “I think this next flight, we won’t introduce as many different techniques. We’ll try to move closer to the configuration we plan to use next year.”

4. Long - Term Plans: Going to Orbit

4.1 Orbital Flight Timeline

“Next year, we will introduce another version of both the ship and booster, called V3,” Gerstenmaier told Ars. “It will feature a new Raptor engine with enhanced performance. We’ll first fly V3 on a sub - orbital mission. If successful, we’ll likely attempt an orbital flight with the next V3.”

This implies that an orbital flight would occur no earlier than Flight 13, which aligns with Musk’s recent comment. He said SpaceX will likely attempt to catch and recover Starship at Starbase around Flight 13 - 15, depending on the outcomes of the next couple of test flights. It also concurs with predictions by Eric Berger in a recent story on Starship.

4.2 Significance of Orbital Missions

To attempt a catch, Starship must reach orbital velocity to circumnavigate the globe and return to Texas. All of Starship’s test flights so far have been sub - orbital. SpaceX wants to ensure precise control over the ship’s re - entry location and time before attempting an orbital flight, as an uncontrolled reentry of such a large vehicle could result in debris falling to the ground.

Orbital missions will mark a new phase in Starship’s development. Recovering Starship intact will enable engineers to better evaluate the heat shield’s performance. An orbital flight will also allow SpaceX to launch more powerful next - generation Starlink broadband satellites. Most importantly, for future lunar and Martian missions, orbital flight will enable the first demonstration of large - scale orbital refueling, which Gerstenmaier said they aim to achieve in 2026.

5. Super Heavy Booster Experiment Results

5.1 Booster Performance on Flight 10

Gerstenmaier also briefly discussed the results of experiments with Starship’s Super Heavy booster on the most recent test flight. The booster splashed down in the Gulf of Mexico off the Texas coastline after propelling Starship into space. SpaceX subjected the booster to higher stresses during its return to Earth, guiding it to a water landing instead of a tower - catch.

5.2 Discrepancies in Booster Performance

SpaceX engineers found that the booster’s descent performance in flight did not match predictions from computer models or wind tunnel tests. In ground experiments, the booster experienced unstable buffeting as it slowed below the speed of sound. However, in flight, it demonstrated more stability than expected.

Gerstenmaier posed the question to the research community: “So the big question is, why are we seeing these differences? We suspected it might be the case, but we weren’t certain, and we were able to demonstrate this in flight.” He suggested that universities and government labs could help answer this question, as companies like SpaceX move on to the next innovation once they find a workable solution.

This story originally appeared on Ars Technica.